Gathering storms

The brief time of relative peace that the United States has had is pretty much over. September 11, 2001, really should have brought that home to all of us, but somehow it didn't. Hopefully, the price we pay for that isn't too steep.

It's not just the situation with Georgia, either. While we do have problems coming up between us and Russia--like the facts that they sell arms to our (and Israel's) enemies in the Middle East; they're moving toward interfering in our back yard, again; and are planning to seize tracts of the Arctic--we cannot lose sight that these problems are not all we face. Nor should we lose sight that Russia could make any of the other problems immeasurably worse.

Iran

We're facing increasing problems with Iran--largely thanks to the Russians. They've told the world that they can control the Persian Gulf: any ships attempting to enter comes within range of their missiles. They have, in the past, threatened to block the oil routes through there if their nuclear aspirations are blocked. Since 40% of the world's oil--not including that drilled in Russia, Venezuela, Brazil, or the US--passes through there, the threat is not insignificant. Especially since this amount is a significant amount of what the United States buys.

We cannot count on the Russians to stand with us against Iran in this threat, either. It's not their oil profits that are being threatened, after all. Indeed, the more Middle Eastern oil is blockaded, the more Europe must turn to Russia for their energy needs--and the weaker the United States will become, with a good chunk of our oil supply cut. So no, Russia may not be directly behind the threat, but they're quietly supporting it.

Nor is threatening all they're doing: Iran has begun positioning their Revolutionary Guard in their territorial waters, right in that oil superhighway.

The Revolutionary Guard isn't their regular military, but rabid, radical, fundamentalist hardliners that the current Iranian government has tasked with defending their religious dictatorship. The Guard is far more confrontational than their regular army--big surprise there, since they're the military arm of the government that wants to start the end-of-the-world holocaust that's prophesied in both Muslim and Christian beliefs--and far better equipped. The regular Iranian army isn't who has control of the missiles that can reach Israel, and our bases in the Middle East.

We're also facing a nuclear Iran, thanks to Russia's intervention. Granted, what they're building for Iran is nothing more than a civilian power plant, something to provide electricity to the citizens. If Iran were a rational state, I'd be cheering. Unfortunately, they're not. Not only that, but the UN nuclear proliferation watchdog, the IAEA, suspects that Iran's been trying to refit its best long-range missile to carry a nuclear payload.

Even France sees Iran as a clear and present danger. If France is able to see it, God help the rest of the world.

Terrorism

Nor is that the only threat we face. The past has demonstrated that the United States has always been far more ready to face a threat based within a nation-state like Iran. Unfortunately, as we should have learned in 1993, with the first, failed, attack on the Towers; in 2000, with the bombing of the USS Cole in Yemen; and in 2001, with the successful attack that brought down a symbol; we are not prepared to face an enemy that fades out from one place, only to attack from another.

In 2001, after the September 11 attacks, we attacked the country harboring the terrorist organization that hit us on our own ground. We took out the government that harbored them. Briefly.

Actually, the Taliban simply moved across the border into Pakistan. So did Al Qaeda. What looked, at first, like success has turned out to be nothing more than a "retreat and regroup" maneuver.

At first, Pakistan had no issues with us moving in to surgically target Afghani groups that had crossed into their territory. However, since Musharrif stepped down, Pakistan has changed its mind, ordering its military to strike back at US soldiers that cross the border in pursuit of the Taliban or al Qaeda.

While al Qaeda has seemed to subside in Iraq, they've re-emerged, bloodily, in Yemen. Again. This morning, they attacked our embassy in Yemen in a well planned, well rehearsed, well choreographed attack, much as they performed with the four passenger jets on September 11. I say "again" because they were also responsible for the strike against the Cole, eight years ago.

In any case, while I'm not sure Russia has a hand in any of the above--other than weapons sales--I'm not sure they don't, either. All I'm sure of is that this has flared up, after having died down for a good while, at very convenient time for Russia.

We're facing several different storms gathering on our horizon. We definitely need to be prepared to face them, and that means bringing our military's capabilities back up to a two-front war, both in hardware and boots ready to go. That means we need a president that's capable of seeing that diplomacy only works when backed by the threat of force in much of the world. That means we need a population with the same understanding, and the testicular fortitude to be able to face the coming storm.

God help us.