Forecast: cold, shading slowly colder

Yesterday made me think, and think hard, about who is, ultimately, to blame for the final count of 2,975 people, excluding the terrorists, who lost their lives in the September 11 attacks.  The more I think about it, the more I come to the conclusion that, while the hijackers were mostly Saudi Arabian males between the ages of 17 and 40 who were associated with Al Quaida, the fault lay with us, and with the defunct Soviet Union.

I came to this conclusion because, throughout the Cold War, the main method of fighting with each other came through destabilization of nations, especially in the Middle East, and through proxy wars in Central and South America where our militaries trained different countries' militaries in fighting the Communist funded rebels (and sometimes governments), and in Asia, with Korea and Vietnam forming the theatres of war where our military actively engaged in the fighting.  

One of the regions destabilized during this period was Afghanistan.  Already embroiled in a civil war between the religious Muslims who wanted to remain that way and a communist-leaning government, Afghanistan was invaded by Russia in 1979.  We funneled money and arms into Afghanistan, putting both the money and the weapons into the hands of what would later become the Taliban government, the government that shielded Osama bin Laden and Al Quaida.  

We are on the verge of having the same thing happen again.  Russia is working with Iran in building a nuclear plant, rather than working with the West in keeping nuclear technology out of their hands.  They're still providing arms to Syria.  They're still working towards destabilization in the Middle East, though this time is to keep us busy with the ongoing and inadequately named "War on Terror."  

Israel understands what's going on.  They've taken steps to keep their relations with Russia on a fairly good footing.  After all, it's Russian arms that their enemies are buying, and a Russian nuclear power plant that they're (hopefully) planning to destroy.  

Russia is, apparently, still playing by the same rules as it did during Cold War I: funneling arms and money into territories in the Middle East.  And apparently (and unfortunately), so are we: Israel has asked for, and been denied, access to technology and infrastructure support that would enable them to attack Iran to prevent them from becoming a nuclear power.

I don't know that it matters whether or not we do more than upgrade Israel's defensive capabilities.  I think that the regional destabilization is well underway, and I think that Israel will likely be capable, with or without our help, of defending their own borders and preventing the rise of an unstable and avowed hostile nuclear power.  That counts for Israel, but Israel isn't the jihadists' only target. 

This time, though, more of the problem will be in our own back yard, with the Marxist/socialist/ communist regimes in South America.  The most recent, and most publicized, problems have been with Venezuela, but Bolivia is also a problem.  Russia, of course, is openly working with Venezuela on a military level: the two countries will be working together in Caribbean war games, and Russia recently sent two bombers to Venezuela, as a warning that they have new allies, according to Chavez.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan was an American mistake in realpolitik, one that we're still working on cleaning up.  That particular mistake from Cold War I led pretty directly to September 11.  

Realpolitik doesn't make sense long term, not where extremist nutjobs are concerned.  What caused the collapse of the Soviet Union was Regan's use of America's massive capitalist market's capabilities to break the Soviet machine under its own weight.  We have to keep that lesson in mind this time, as Russia attempts to claim massive oil reserves in the Arctic, reserves that we could be tapping, now, in ANWR and off our coasts.   We have to keep that lesson in mind as we choose where to place our investments.  

We must hit them in the economic sector.  We must not allow the proxy wars and destabilization efforts to go on endlessly, content to preserve a fragile, realpolitik, stalemate.  

Unless we remember the lessons learned last time, we will likely experience an attack that makes September 11, 2001 look bloodless.  The next attack will more than likely involve a nuclear bomb, probably in a major port city, likely smuggled in in a shipping container.

And that, too, will be as much our fault, and Russia's, as much as it will be the perpetrators'.