Thursday, November 20, 2008

Not something to celebrate, stupid.

Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, released a statement today, celebrating what he sees as the collapse of the "arrogant powers" that stand in his way to becoming a nuclear power.

What a stupid thing to do. Who buys Iran's oil? Who controls a good portion of the airspace between Israel and Iran?

In this case, at least, I believe Stratfor's analysis is wrong, despite Friedman's sound reasoning: I think that it is very likely that Israel will launch an air attack against Iran's nuclear sites within the next sixty days, during President Bush's lame duck period, but before Obama comes into office. Were it not that Iran had just finished enriching enough uranium for a bomb, he probably would have been right; however, I think that Israel's caution and fierce desire to continue to exist will drive them to do the impossible successfully.

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